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 Annual
Mean Precipitation as Simulated by a Global Climate Model,
and Observed Values
A climate model is a tool that researchers
use to understand the workings of the intricate systems that
make up the earth’s climate. Climate researchers can’t
conduct experiments in the real world to check their ideas.
But computer simulations—which use equations to represent
the physical processes of the climate—allow researchers
to experiment with a virtual world.
Climate models are complex—like climate itself. To test
a climate model, scientists compare the model’s predictions
to observations made in the real world. This process, known
as validation, allows researchers to see where a model’s
predictions match reality—and where the model goes astray.
Researchers working with the climate model that generated
the top map recognize that this model distorts annual patterns
of precipitation in central Europe. To improve the model’s
performance, they are working to incorporate equations that
will better represent the effects related to the role of clouds
and water vapor in the atmosphere.
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Comparing predictions with actual
outcomes is a fundamental tool of science. Comparing
the scenario generated by a climate model with
real world conditions is a test for the model—and
for the understanding of natural processes that
the model represents.
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glossary
terms
